Mike Gray

Analysis or scaremongering?

First National News

Analysis or scaremongering?First National Real Estate CEO, Ray Ellis, is calling for scaremongering real estate analysts to be held accountable, after predicting a ‘housing bubble burst’ or ‘affordability crisis’, amidst claims Australia has the most overpriced property in the world.

“These types of claims are incredibly frustrating when you know they are based on a lack of understanding of the complexities and dynamics of the Australian property market,” Mr Ellis said.

“The reality is that we probably have one of the best buyers’ markets at the moment and houses at some of the most affordable levels in decades. Strong population growth is driving demand, and a crucial undersupply of stock is putting a floor under house prices.”

According to Mr Ellis, the market is already softening, with the slowing of house price increases creating some real opportunities for bargain hunters, first time buyers and investors.

“In our recent 2010 Property Outlook Mid-Year Update, we highlighted Australia’s leading mortgage aggregator’s figures which show almost 40 per cent of loans drawn in April were to investors – the highest number recorded,” Mr Ellis said.

While it is true that immigration levels, the highest since World War II, are generating significant demand for housing, much of this debate is overheated by the political agenda.

“But what no one is talking about is the fact that Government is one of the major barriers to increasing supply of housing. Ineffectual planning and approvals processes are the major barriers to increasing supply, so it is Governments that will continue to drive the market into the future,” Mr Ellis said.

“Compounding all this is the Prime Minister’s comments that she no longer supports a ‘Big Australia’, but a ‘Sustainable Australia’ which can only beg the question ‘does that mean you are going to lower immigration levels’, which will impact significantly on the Australian property market.

“When it comes to price trends, they correlate more with the level of public confidence than the level of interest rates, which can have a positive influence on confidence as they are a sign of an improving economy.

“Price growth revived late last year, along with confidence, as emphasis shifted to news of recovery, falling rates of unemployment and a resurgent resources sector, all factors unique to the Australian market

Mr Ellis said while he supported ‘free speech’, analysts needed to be responsible and look at all sides of the story when making pronouncements about the property market.

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